As El Niño Strengthens, Mauritius Faces a Test of Resilience

As El Niño intensifies, Mauritius faces the prospect of hotter conditions, strained water resources and growing pressure on agriculture and marine ecosystems. Beyond the immediate weather threat, the real test will be the country’s capacity to adapt and build lasting resilience.

The 2026 El Niño event is gathering strength, raising important questions about what the global climate phenomenon could mean for Mauritius as the island heads into the summer season. According to a brief issued by the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) on 10 August, El Niño has been intensifying since June and is expected to strengthen further before peaking between October and December 2026. El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, a natural climate pattern that begins in the equatorial Pacific but influences rainfall, temperatures and extreme weather far beyond the region through shifts in atmospheric circulation.

For Mauritius, the effects are rarely straightforward. An MMS analysis of previous major El Niño events found they were generally associated with near-normal cumulative summer rainfall and above-normal temperatures over the island, while cyclone activity across the South-West Indian Ocean remained comparatively lower than normal.

This year’s outlook, however, points to a relatively dry period in the months ahead. The MMS expects rainfall to reach around 80 per cent of the long-term mean in August, September and October, before improving to about 90 per cent in November. Rainfall is therefore classified as slightly below normal through October and near normal in November.

The island is also emerging from an existing dry spell. The Standardised Precipitation Index recorded negative values during May, June and July, with a three-month average of –0.17. A temporary wet spell in the second half of June was not enough to offset the rainfall deficit.

For marine biologist Dr Nadeem Nazurally, the concern extends beyond El Niño as an isolated event. The real risk lies in the additional pressure it could place on an already vulnerable island environment.

“For Mauritius, the significance of a strong El Niño lies in the fact that we are a small island with a very close dependence on the ocean, coastal ecosystems and climate-sensitive economic activities,” he says.

Changes in temperature and rainfall, he explains, can quickly ripple through the economy. “A change in temperature and rainfall patterns can quickly translate into pressure on water resources, agriculture, fisheries, tourism and coastal communities.”

Coral reefs, lagoons, mangroves and seagrasses are especially exposed. “They are particularly vulnerable because they are already under pressure from pollution, coastal development, sedimentation and climate change. The concern is therefore not El Niño alone, but the additional stress it can impose on ecosystems that are already weakened.”

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